PDC Summer Series – Day 1

The table below shows the projected probability of players reaching the Quarter-Final and beyond on Day 1 of the Summer Series.

Thoughts:

  • There are some ties on the Pro Tour Order of Merit. These projections assume that seedings will be as indicated in the table.
  • The data includes 7,000 random draws. The table will be updated with more data regularly until the start of the tournament.
  • Participating players not shown did not reach a Quarter-Final in any of our tournaments.
  • Nothing played since the most recent Pro Tour event (Players Championship 8) is included. No Home Tour. No online matches. No German Superleague. Someone like Devon Petersen (among others) ranks high on this list because he was playing extremely well in March. Conversely, a player like Max Hopp ranks low because he was dealing with injury and not playing well at that time. Things may have changed in the last four months. Adjust as you see fit.
SeedPlayerQF%SF%FINAL%WIN%
2Peter Wright51.44%40.56%28.99%17.23%
8Michael van Gerwen49.26%32.33%22.91%15.06%
5Ian White47.16%35.59%18.81%11.89%
1Gerwyn Price41.71%23.99%15.79%9.74%
6Nathan Aspinall37.74%24.96%14.73%7.51%
3Krzysztof Ratajski28.39%16.17%8.70%4.13%
9James Wade25.13%13.10%7.93%3.91%
10Glen Durrant32.54%15.39%8.20%3.84%
Devon Petersen19.33%11.26%5.64%2.77%
14Michael Smith22.07%11.71%5.60%2.41%
4Mensur Suljovic27.71%11.81%4.24%1.91%
16Danny Noppert15.43%6.99%3.67%1.73%
27Gary Anderson15.16%8.21%3.56%1.56%
Jason Lowe11.04%6.40%2.84%1.33%
17Jose de Sousa13.81%5.90%3.26%1.29%
21Gabriel Clemens11.79%7.27%2.67%1.14%
Dirk van Duijvenbode12.23%6.19%2.54%1.07%
12Brendan Dolan12.09%7.14%2.43%0.96%
19Adrian Lewis10.47%4.69%1.99%0.70%
Luke Humphries8.91%4.03%1.76%0.57%
15Rob Cross8.81%4.77%1.80%0.50%
31Kim Huybrechts7.57%3.93%1.57%0.50%
Chris Dobey9.24%3.74%1.44%0.50%
Mike de Decker8.23%3.69%1.44%0.49%
13Daryl Gurney14.86%5.40%1.63%0.47%
Steve Lennon8.19%2.97%1.17%0.43%
Stephen Bunting7.04%2.77%1.17%0.36%
Ross Smith9.24%3.26%1.17%0.31%
Eddie Lovely6.27%2.50%0.87%0.31%
Scott Waites5.69%2.33%0.83%0.31%
Benito van de Pas6.49%2.70%0.97%0.30%
Jelle Klaasen6.86%2.66%0.81%0.24%
22Jonny Clayton7.44%3.33%1.01%0.23%
Maik Kuivenhoven6.83%2.66%0.91%0.23%
18Jermaine Wattimena5.40%2.41%0.91%0.23%
30Ryan Searle6.40%2.26%0.73%0.23%
William O’Connor7.07%2.76%1.09%0.21%
Simon Whitlock6.11%2.59%0.80%0.21%
Jeff Smith5.57%1.56%0.50%0.21%
Ricky Evans4.90%1.90%0.70%0.20%
29Vincent van der Voort7.54%2.24%0.53%0.20%
28Steve Beaton5.14%2.54%0.66%0.17%
11Dave Chisnall6.86%2.50%0.74%0.16%
7Joe Cullen7.77%2.04%0.69%0.16%
Ryan Joyce5.37%1.81%0.66%0.14%
Darius Labanauskas4.74%1.54%0.60%0.13%
24Jamie Hughes4.00%1.47%0.53%0.13%
Luke Woodhouse5.44%1.61%0.57%0.11%
23Justin Pipe6.61%1.87%0.44%0.11%
Wayne Jones3.53%1.24%0.27%0.11%
John Henderson5.23%1.81%0.50%0.10%
32Steve West4.37%1.21%0.36%0.10%
Adam Hunt3.63%0.94%0.34%0.10%
Scott Mitchell3.19%0.89%0.29%0.10%
Mervyn King4.50%1.43%0.39%0.09%
Andrew Gilding3.19%1.26%0.37%0.09%
26Dimitri van den Bergh5.96%1.57%0.31%0.07%
25Keegan Brown3.39%1.10%0.31%0.07%
Kai Fan Leung3.11%0.90%0.30%0.06%
Ron Meulenkamp3.10%0.91%0.26%0.06%
Andy Boulton2.37%0.61%0.24%0.04%
Rowby-John Rodriguez3.14%0.97%0.21%0.04%
Mark McGeeney1.27%0.33%0.09%0.04%
Martijn Kleermaker1.64%0.54%0.20%0.03%
Josh Payne3.50%1.04%0.17%0.03%
Mickey Mansell1.94%0.61%0.17%0.03%
20Jeffrey de Zwaan4.37%0.89%0.14%0.03%
Nick Kenny1.93%0.66%0.14%0.03%
Ryan Meikle2.16%0.51%0.13%0.03%
Robert Collins1.94%0.57%0.10%0.03%
Ryan Murray1.30%0.30%0.09%0.03%
Reece Robinson1.17%0.27%0.03%0.03%
Darren Webster2.56%0.70%0.16%0.01%
Martin Schindler2.04%0.49%0.09%0.01%
Niels Zonneveld1.04%0.31%0.07%0.01%
Steve Brown2.00%0.60%0.06%0.01%
Madars Razma1.04%0.39%0.06%0.01%
Harry Ward1.30%0.36%0.06%0.01%
Scott Baker1.14%0.27%0.06%0.01%
Jonathan Worsley0.59%0.10%0.03%0.01%
Geert Nentjes2.50%0.49%0.16%<0.01%
Karel Sedlacek1.34%0.34%0.10%<0.01%
Alan Tabern1.89%0.36%0.09%<0.01%
Christian Bunse1.53%0.47%0.06%<0.01%
Conan Whitehead1.57%0.34%0.06%<0.01%
Ciaran Teehan1.21%0.26%0.06%<0.01%
Joe Murnan0.61%0.14%0.06%<0.01%
Derk Telnekes1.41%0.30%0.04%<0.01%
Jamie Lewis0.93%0.23%0.03%<0.01%
Andy Hamilton1.00%0.19%0.03%<0.01%
Simon Stevenson0.76%0.16%0.03%<0.01%
Jan Dekker0.51%0.13%0.03%<0.01%
Ted Evetts0.60%0.13%0.01%<0.01%
William Borland0.67%0.11%0.01%<0.01%
Matt Clark0.59%0.11%0.01%<0.01%
Gavin Carlin0.80%0.09%0.01%<0.01%
Lisa Ashton0.13%0.04%0.01%<0.01%
Bradley Brooks0.34%0.16%<0.01%<0.01%
Adrian Gray0.41%0.10%<0.01%<0.01%
Matthew Edgar0.51%0.06%<0.01%<0.01%
Vincent van der Meer0.44%0.06%<0.01%<0.01%
Callan Rydz0.37%0.06%<0.01%<0.01%
Krzysztof Kciuk0.27%0.06%<0.01%<0.01%
Darren Penhall0.49%0.04%<0.01%<0.01%
Richard North0.40%0.04%<0.01%<0.01%
Peter Jacques0.20%0.04%<0.01%<0.01%
Martin Atkins (Wigan)0.19%0.04%<0.01%<0.01%
Arjan Konterman0.17%0.03%<0.01%<0.01%
David Pallett0.14%0.03%<0.01%<0.01%
Matthew Dennant0.14%0.03%<0.01%<0.01%
Cameron Menzies0.11%0.03%<0.01%<0.01%
Gary Blades0.31%0.01%<0.01%<0.01%
Robert Thornton0.19%0.01%<0.01%<0.01%
Boris Krcmar0.09%0.01%<0.01%<0.01%
Max Hopp0.06%0.01%<0.01%<0.01%
Carl Wilkinson0.14%<0.01%<0.01%<0.01%
James Wilson0.07%<0.01%<0.01%<0.01%
Kirk Shepherd0.06%<0.01%<0.01%<0.01%
Harald Leitinger0.06%<0.01%<0.01%<0.01%
Mike van Duivenbode0.01%<0.01%<0.01%<0.01%
Cristo Reyes0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Kyle Anderson0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Toni Alcinas0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
John Michael0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Yordi Meeuwisse0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Daniel Larsson0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Steffen Siepmann0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Marko Kantele0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Damon Heta0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Wesley Harms0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Jesus Noguera0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
*7,000 tournament draws
Includes matches played prior to March 16, 2020.
Assumes seeds are as listed.

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