PDC Summer Series – Day 1
The table below shows the projected probability of players reaching the Quarter-Final and beyond on Day 1 of the Summer Series.
Thoughts:
- There are some ties on the Pro Tour Order of Merit. These projections assume that seedings will be as indicated in the table.
- The data includes 7,000 random draws. The table will be updated with more data regularly until the start of the tournament.
- Participating players not shown did not reach a Quarter-Final in any of our tournaments.
- Nothing played since the most recent Pro Tour event (Players Championship 8) is included. No Home Tour. No online matches. No German Superleague. Someone like Devon Petersen (among others) ranks high on this list because he was playing extremely well in March. Conversely, a player like Max Hopp ranks low because he was dealing with injury and not playing well at that time. Things may have changed in the last four months. Adjust as you see fit.
| Seed | Player | QF% | SF% | FINAL% | WIN% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Peter Wright | 51.44% | 40.56% | 28.99% | 17.23% |
| 8 | Michael van Gerwen | 49.26% | 32.33% | 22.91% | 15.06% |
| 5 | Ian White | 47.16% | 35.59% | 18.81% | 11.89% |
| 1 | Gerwyn Price | 41.71% | 23.99% | 15.79% | 9.74% |
| 6 | Nathan Aspinall | 37.74% | 24.96% | 14.73% | 7.51% |
| 3 | Krzysztof Ratajski | 28.39% | 16.17% | 8.70% | 4.13% |
| 9 | James Wade | 25.13% | 13.10% | 7.93% | 3.91% |
| 10 | Glen Durrant | 32.54% | 15.39% | 8.20% | 3.84% |
| Devon Petersen | 19.33% | 11.26% | 5.64% | 2.77% | |
| 14 | Michael Smith | 22.07% | 11.71% | 5.60% | 2.41% |
| 4 | Mensur Suljovic | 27.71% | 11.81% | 4.24% | 1.91% |
| 16 | Danny Noppert | 15.43% | 6.99% | 3.67% | 1.73% |
| 27 | Gary Anderson | 15.16% | 8.21% | 3.56% | 1.56% |
| Jason Lowe | 11.04% | 6.40% | 2.84% | 1.33% | |
| 17 | Jose de Sousa | 13.81% | 5.90% | 3.26% | 1.29% |
| 21 | Gabriel Clemens | 11.79% | 7.27% | 2.67% | 1.14% |
| Dirk van Duijvenbode | 12.23% | 6.19% | 2.54% | 1.07% | |
| 12 | Brendan Dolan | 12.09% | 7.14% | 2.43% | 0.96% |
| 19 | Adrian Lewis | 10.47% | 4.69% | 1.99% | 0.70% |
| Luke Humphries | 8.91% | 4.03% | 1.76% | 0.57% | |
| 15 | Rob Cross | 8.81% | 4.77% | 1.80% | 0.50% |
| 31 | Kim Huybrechts | 7.57% | 3.93% | 1.57% | 0.50% |
| Chris Dobey | 9.24% | 3.74% | 1.44% | 0.50% | |
| Mike de Decker | 8.23% | 3.69% | 1.44% | 0.49% | |
| 13 | Daryl Gurney | 14.86% | 5.40% | 1.63% | 0.47% |
| Steve Lennon | 8.19% | 2.97% | 1.17% | 0.43% | |
| Stephen Bunting | 7.04% | 2.77% | 1.17% | 0.36% | |
| Ross Smith | 9.24% | 3.26% | 1.17% | 0.31% | |
| Eddie Lovely | 6.27% | 2.50% | 0.87% | 0.31% | |
| Scott Waites | 5.69% | 2.33% | 0.83% | 0.31% | |
| Benito van de Pas | 6.49% | 2.70% | 0.97% | 0.30% | |
| Jelle Klaasen | 6.86% | 2.66% | 0.81% | 0.24% | |
| 22 | Jonny Clayton | 7.44% | 3.33% | 1.01% | 0.23% |
| Maik Kuivenhoven | 6.83% | 2.66% | 0.91% | 0.23% | |
| 18 | Jermaine Wattimena | 5.40% | 2.41% | 0.91% | 0.23% |
| 30 | Ryan Searle | 6.40% | 2.26% | 0.73% | 0.23% |
| William O’Connor | 7.07% | 2.76% | 1.09% | 0.21% | |
| Simon Whitlock | 6.11% | 2.59% | 0.80% | 0.21% | |
| Jeff Smith | 5.57% | 1.56% | 0.50% | 0.21% | |
| Ricky Evans | 4.90% | 1.90% | 0.70% | 0.20% | |
| 29 | Vincent van der Voort | 7.54% | 2.24% | 0.53% | 0.20% |
| 28 | Steve Beaton | 5.14% | 2.54% | 0.66% | 0.17% |
| 11 | Dave Chisnall | 6.86% | 2.50% | 0.74% | 0.16% |
| 7 | Joe Cullen | 7.77% | 2.04% | 0.69% | 0.16% |
| Ryan Joyce | 5.37% | 1.81% | 0.66% | 0.14% | |
| Darius Labanauskas | 4.74% | 1.54% | 0.60% | 0.13% | |
| 24 | Jamie Hughes | 4.00% | 1.47% | 0.53% | 0.13% |
| Luke Woodhouse | 5.44% | 1.61% | 0.57% | 0.11% | |
| 23 | Justin Pipe | 6.61% | 1.87% | 0.44% | 0.11% |
| Wayne Jones | 3.53% | 1.24% | 0.27% | 0.11% | |
| John Henderson | 5.23% | 1.81% | 0.50% | 0.10% | |
| 32 | Steve West | 4.37% | 1.21% | 0.36% | 0.10% |
| Adam Hunt | 3.63% | 0.94% | 0.34% | 0.10% | |
| Scott Mitchell | 3.19% | 0.89% | 0.29% | 0.10% | |
| Mervyn King | 4.50% | 1.43% | 0.39% | 0.09% | |
| Andrew Gilding | 3.19% | 1.26% | 0.37% | 0.09% | |
| 26 | Dimitri van den Bergh | 5.96% | 1.57% | 0.31% | 0.07% |
| 25 | Keegan Brown | 3.39% | 1.10% | 0.31% | 0.07% |
| Kai Fan Leung | 3.11% | 0.90% | 0.30% | 0.06% | |
| Ron Meulenkamp | 3.10% | 0.91% | 0.26% | 0.06% | |
| Andy Boulton | 2.37% | 0.61% | 0.24% | 0.04% | |
| Rowby-John Rodriguez | 3.14% | 0.97% | 0.21% | 0.04% | |
| Mark McGeeney | 1.27% | 0.33% | 0.09% | 0.04% | |
| Martijn Kleermaker | 1.64% | 0.54% | 0.20% | 0.03% | |
| Josh Payne | 3.50% | 1.04% | 0.17% | 0.03% | |
| Mickey Mansell | 1.94% | 0.61% | 0.17% | 0.03% | |
| 20 | Jeffrey de Zwaan | 4.37% | 0.89% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| Nick Kenny | 1.93% | 0.66% | 0.14% | 0.03% | |
| Ryan Meikle | 2.16% | 0.51% | 0.13% | 0.03% | |
| Robert Collins | 1.94% | 0.57% | 0.10% | 0.03% | |
| Ryan Murray | 1.30% | 0.30% | 0.09% | 0.03% | |
| Reece Robinson | 1.17% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.03% | |
| Darren Webster | 2.56% | 0.70% | 0.16% | 0.01% | |
| Martin Schindler | 2.04% | 0.49% | 0.09% | 0.01% | |
| Niels Zonneveld | 1.04% | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.01% | |
| Steve Brown | 2.00% | 0.60% | 0.06% | 0.01% | |
| Madars Razma | 1.04% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.01% | |
| Harry Ward | 1.30% | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.01% | |
| Scott Baker | 1.14% | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.01% | |
| Jonathan Worsley | 0.59% | 0.10% | 0.03% | 0.01% | |
| Geert Nentjes | 2.50% | 0.49% | 0.16% | <0.01% | |
| Karel Sedlacek | 1.34% | 0.34% | 0.10% | <0.01% | |
| Alan Tabern | 1.89% | 0.36% | 0.09% | <0.01% | |
| Christian Bunse | 1.53% | 0.47% | 0.06% | <0.01% | |
| Conan Whitehead | 1.57% | 0.34% | 0.06% | <0.01% | |
| Ciaran Teehan | 1.21% | 0.26% | 0.06% | <0.01% | |
| Joe Murnan | 0.61% | 0.14% | 0.06% | <0.01% | |
| Derk Telnekes | 1.41% | 0.30% | 0.04% | <0.01% | |
| Jamie Lewis | 0.93% | 0.23% | 0.03% | <0.01% | |
| Andy Hamilton | 1.00% | 0.19% | 0.03% | <0.01% | |
| Simon Stevenson | 0.76% | 0.16% | 0.03% | <0.01% | |
| Jan Dekker | 0.51% | 0.13% | 0.03% | <0.01% | |
| Ted Evetts | 0.60% | 0.13% | 0.01% | <0.01% | |
| William Borland | 0.67% | 0.11% | 0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Matt Clark | 0.59% | 0.11% | 0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Gavin Carlin | 0.80% | 0.09% | 0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Lisa Ashton | 0.13% | 0.04% | 0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Bradley Brooks | 0.34% | 0.16% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Adrian Gray | 0.41% | 0.10% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Matthew Edgar | 0.51% | 0.06% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Vincent van der Meer | 0.44% | 0.06% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Callan Rydz | 0.37% | 0.06% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Krzysztof Kciuk | 0.27% | 0.06% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Darren Penhall | 0.49% | 0.04% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Richard North | 0.40% | 0.04% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Peter Jacques | 0.20% | 0.04% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Martin Atkins (Wigan) | 0.19% | 0.04% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Arjan Konterman | 0.17% | 0.03% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| David Pallett | 0.14% | 0.03% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Matthew Dennant | 0.14% | 0.03% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Cameron Menzies | 0.11% | 0.03% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Gary Blades | 0.31% | 0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Robert Thornton | 0.19% | 0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Boris Krcmar | 0.09% | 0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Max Hopp | 0.06% | 0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Carl Wilkinson | 0.14% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| James Wilson | 0.07% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Kirk Shepherd | 0.06% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Harald Leitinger | 0.06% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Mike van Duivenbode | 0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | |
| Cristo Reyes | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Kyle Anderson | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Toni Alcinas | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| John Michael | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Yordi Meeuwisse | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Daniel Larsson | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Steffen Siepmann | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Marko Kantele | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Damon Heta | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Wesley Harms | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Jesus Noguera | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Includes matches played prior to March 16, 2020.
Assumes seeds are as listed.
