2020 Ladbrokes Masters Evaluation

Our picks to win ended up within the expected range by the end of the tournament. We actually did the worst with the matches we were the most confident about. Two of our four 70-80% confidence picks missed: Van Gerwen to beat Clayton (77%) and Price to beat Anderson (72%). While Anderson’s resurgence was nice to see as a fan, he definitely broke our algorithms by far exceeding his recent performance level.

On the betting side, Anderson’s two wins cost us a combined $64. So we didn’t make a profit at the Masters. But there were some good picks mixed in, the biggest of which was Clayton over Van Gerwen.

Prediction Evaluation

Overall – 15 Matches
Expected: 8.8/15 – 10.3/15 (58.7-68.7%)
Actual: 9/15 (60%)

50-60% Confidence – 6 Matches
Expected: 3/6 – 3.6/6 (50-60%)
Actual: 4/6 (66.7%)

60-70% Confidence – 5 Matches
Expected: 3/5 – 3.5/5 (60-70%)
Actual: 3/5 (60%)

70-80% Confidence – 4 Matches
Expected: 2.8/4 – 3.2/4 (70-80%)
Actual: 2/4 (50%)

Wager Evaluation

Overall
Wagered: $170
Return: $141.73
Profit: -$28.27

Biggest Win
Michael van Gerwen v Jonny Clayton
$12 on Clayton @ 7/1
Return: $96, Profit: $84

Biggest Loss
Gary Anderson v Ian White
$36 on White @ 23/20
Return: $0, Profit: -$36

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